in excess of 100,000. The bottom is a process not a point, and Bitcoin hit its lowest levels near 3,000 only a couple of weeks ago in mid-December, and it is not certain that this is the lowest Bitcoin s price will. If the current bear market follows the pattern of the previous bear market, then perhaps this bear market will end in late 2019. Bitcoin having plenty of significant price movements before 2017. In total, the bear market lasted 21 months. Nevertheless interesting to see the low correlation in daily moves. Plus a little conjecture on today's unusual movements. On a logarithmic chart, the space between price levels becomes increasingly condensed as price rises, and this reveals the true nature of, bitcoin s price action from 2012 to 2016.
A recovery to the previous all-time high of 20,000 would not be expected until early 2021. Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike.0 Unported License.
This suggests that the market dynamics during the current market cycle and the previous cycle are similar, and therefore the data from the past can perhaps be used to predict the future. Load raw data, timestamp, open, high, low. Lower chart is volume. Firstly the stats and graphs since 2015.
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As you can see, they are still highly correlated, however this only picks up daily close and not ohlc. It took Bitcoin 13 months to hit its lowest price levels during the bear market, and the price of Bitcoin persisted near a bottom for 8 months. The current Bitcoin bear market has been ongoing for just over 12 months so far, and if past market behavior is a good predictor for the current market, the first 3 quarters of 2019 will be defined by Bitcoin s price bottoming. Therefore, using a logarithmic chart to make these predictions is not certain to be accurate. Use this link to bookmark or share this chart. The stats for the late July onwards data reflect a lower correlation (0.815) as well as increased BTC volatility and decreased ETH volatility. Bitcoin s current market cycle to past market cycles. And the stats for the price moves: I welcome all thoughts over this.
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